A whiff of optimism hangs in the air as Bitcoin enters 2024, fueled by the resurgent confidence of its most loyal disciples: long-term holders. After weathering the storm of the Terra crash, these “diamond hands” are sitting on a 55% unrealized profit, a level last seen before the May meltdown. It’s a stark turnaround, painting a picture of believers ready to ride the wave once again.
Bitcoin Long-Term Profitability
This newfound confidence is captured by the LTH-NUPL metric, a gauge of long-term holder profitability. Climbing back to pre-crash highs, it suggests that Bitcoin’s core base is no longer underwater, their underwatered faith replaced by buoyant expectations. The “rainbow chart,” a visual representation of market sentiment based on LTH-NUPL, has even migrated from the murky waters of “Optimism/Anxiety” to the sunlit shores of “Belief.”
The degree of Unrealized Profit and Loss held by #Bitcoin Long-Term Holders can be measured by LTH-NUPL.
This metric reached 0.55 this week, which is meaningfully positive, and puts the average long-term investor at a 55% unrealized profit. pic.twitter.com/bua4HBLazn
— glassnode (@glassnode) January 17, 2024
But a note of caution rings out. Not all “hodlers” are created equal. While the majority remain steadfast, some are cashing in. Long-Term Holder Supply has dipped slightly, a sign that profit-taking could put a damper on the party. Add to the mix the ever-present specter of leverage in the derivatives market, and the potential for sudden pullbacks looms large.
The recent US ETF approval further complicates the picture. While initially met with jubilation, the Bitcoin price coughed up its gains, dipping to $41,000 before finding its footing near $43,000. Was this a correction or a harbinger of things to come? Only time will tell.
One thing is clear: Bitcoin has rekindled faith in its core believers. But whether this translates into sustained growth or another rollercoaster ride remains to be seen. The bulls are back, fueled by profits and optimism, but the bears haven’t gone into hibernation. This dance between belief and caution will define the path of Bitcoin in the months ahead.
Bitcoin slightly below the $43K level today. Chart: TradingView.com
Bitcoin Stalls Below $43K: Waiting For Institutional Whales To Dive In
Meanwhile, after igniting excitement with the US ETF launch, Bitcoin’s price has spent the week trapped below $43,000. Traders, it seems, are busy rearranging their portfolios in the wake of this historic event. But the real party guests, the much-anticipated institutional investors, are yet to arrive.
BTC price action. Source: Coingecko
Analysts, however, remain bullish, their eyes glued to the horizon for signs of the whales. They whisper of delayed allocations, advisors waiting for dust to settle before plunging into the Bitcoin pool. But whispers don’t move markets.
Technically, the scene is tense. Bulls have dug in at $42,700, repelling bearish attacks that dared dip below. Now, a cautious optimism is brewing, the price inching back towards $43,000. Will this be the spark to ignite the institutional stampede?
Featured image from iStock